U.S., Canada, Mexico Rail: AAR Data and North American Trends

U.S. Rail Traffic Sees Gains Amidst Mixed North American Performance

Freight rail traffic across North America experienced a mixed bag of results during the week ending July 19th, according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). The report reveals significant gains in U.S. rail operations, while performance varied amongst its neighbors. This analysis will examine the key performance indicators (KPIs) across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, highlighting commodity-specific trends and providing a snapshot of the broader industry landscape. The report offers a crucial look at performance during a period of seasonal variations, economic pressures, and supply chain adjustments. This analysis highlights the critical role of rail in moving essential goods and assesses the overall trajectory of the North American freight rail sector.

U.S. Rail Traffic: Strong Performance

U.S. railroads demonstrated robust performance during the week ending July 19th. Overall traffic, encompassing both carloads and intermodal units, increased by 5.6% compared to the same week in 2024, reaching a total of 506,882 units. This increase points to the resilience of the rail freight industry. The AAR data shows 229,739 carloads, a 7.3% increase, and 277,143 containers and trailers, representing a 4.3% increase. This positive momentum is particularly notable considering ongoing macroeconomic factors and fluctuating market demands. The “who” is the AAR, the “what” is the performance of rail traffic, the “when” is the week ending July 19, 2025, the “where” is North America, the “why” is to analyze and report, and the “how” is through data collection.

Commodity-Specific Trends: Carload Gains

A closer look at carload commodities reveals a broad-based increase in traffic. All ten carload commodities tracked by the AAR saw gains during the reporting week, a strong indicator of economic activity and demand across various sectors. Coal carloads experienced a notable 7.8% increase, totaling 62,270 units. This increase can likely be attributed to seasonal energy demands and ongoing infrastructure projects. Grain shipments also showed significant growth, increasing by 24.8% to 21,541 carloads, likely due to agricultural shipping cycles. Metallic ores and metals saw a 9.2% increase, reaching 21,220 carloads, reflecting the ongoing requirements of manufacturing and construction sectors.

North American Regional Variations

While the U.S. railroads demonstrated significant gains, the performance across the rest of North America was more variable. Canadian railroads reported 84,893 carloads, a decrease of 2.6%, and 73,459 intermodal units, an increase of 7.5%. The contrast suggests differing economic conditions and supply chain dynamics. In Mexico, railroads experienced robust growth, with 15,210 carloads, representing a 23.4% increase, and 11,086 intermodal units, a 28.1% increase. This substantial increase in Mexico indicates strong market opportunities and increased trade volumes in the region. The overall increase suggests improved efficiency and potentially expanded capacity.

Year-to-Date Perspective

Analyzing the year-to-date data, from the first 29 weeks of 2025 compared to 2024, provides a more comprehensive view of the industry’s performance. U.S. railroads reported a 3.9% increase in total traffic (carloads and intermodal units), totaling 14,134,803 units. Canadian railroads saw a 1.3% increase, with a total of 4,715,338 carloads, containers, and trailers. Mexican railroads, in contrast, reported a 6.2% decrease, with 693,113 carloads and intermodal units. This wider picture suggests a generally positive trend for North American rail overall, but with significant regional variations and differing growth rates across various segments.

Conclusion

The latest AAR data highlights the continued importance of the U.S. freight rail network, demonstrating resilience and growth in a dynamic market. While carload commodities show encouraging gains, the mixed results among Canadian and Mexican railroads indicate the varying impacts of regional economic conditions and operational considerations. The increases in both carload and intermodal segments in the U.S. reflect a positive trend, with rising traffic in key sectors. The year-to-date figures present a mixed picture, but the overall trend suggests a steady pace of recovery and growth for the North American rail industry, especially in comparison to 2024. Factors like energy demand, agricultural cycles, and international trade continue to shape the overall landscape. Looking ahead, the sector will need to address operational efficiencies, capital investments, and evolving market demands to maintain and improve current performance. Future developments may include more efficient routing strategies and greater utilization of available capacity.