U.S., Canada & Mexico Rail Traffic: North American Freight Trends

U.S. Freight Rail Traffic Sees Modest Gains in Early July

U.S. freight railroads experienced a moderate increase in overall traffic during the week ending July 5, 2025, according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). This report details the performance of both carload and intermodal units, providing a snapshot of the industry’s health. The increase, occurring at a time of year when shipping trends are often closely watched, raises key questions about the underlying drivers of the gains and the overall state of the freight market. The “who” includes the major North American railroads, the “what” is the traffic volume (carloads and intermodal units), the “when” is the week ending July 5th, 2025, and the “where” is the United States, Canada, and Mexico, represented in the reporting. The “why” behind these figures is complex and relates to factors such as seasonal demand, commodity flows, and intermodal competitiveness. The “how” is measured through carloads (individual rail cars) and intermodal units (containers and trailers) tracked by the AAR. This article will analyze these trends, exploring key commodity performance and comparing the performance across North America to better understand the freight market’s dynamics.

U.S. Rail Traffic: A Closer Look

The AAR data reveals a 5% increase in total U.S. freight rail traffic, reaching 443,049 carloads and intermodal units during the week ending July 5, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. This increase is driven by the continued strength of intermodal traffic, which saw a 5.2% increase, alongside a 4.8% rise in carloads. A deeper dive shows that the overall rise was not uniform across all commodities, indicating divergent forces shaping the market. The data offers a valuable opportunity to understand the underlying forces influencing freight demand and the relative contributions of different commodity sectors to the overall growth in traffic.

Commodity Performance: Winners and Losers

Analyzing the performance of individual commodities provides key insights into the specifics behind the overall traffic growth. Eight of the ten carload commodities tracked by the AAR posted gains. The most significant increases were observed in metallic ores and metals, which rose 10% to 20,319 carloads. Additionally, coal carloads increased by 2.3%, totaling 52,351, while nonmetallic minerals rose 6.1% to 28,346 carloads. Conversely, some commodity groups showed declines. Forest products, for example, decreased by 2% to 7,798 carloads, and farm products (excluding grain) and food experienced a 1% drop, with 15,387 carloads. These mixed results suggest that the overall increase in U.S. freight traffic is being driven by specific sectors and commodities, reflecting both market demand and supply dynamics.

North American Comparison: Divergent Trends

While the U.S. saw positive overall growth, traffic trends varied across North America. Canadian railroads reported 81,838 carloads for the week, an 8.3% decrease, but a 10.8% increase in intermodal units (73,636). Mexican railroads showed contrasting results, with 15,449 carloads (a 40.9% increase) and 10,992 intermodal units (a 21% increase). For the first 27 weeks of 2025, U.S. railroads recorded an increase of 3.9% in carloads and intermodal units. Canadian railroads were up 1.2% and Mexican railroads logged a 7.5% decrease. The variability of these figures across borders underscores the complexity of North American freight markets and the impact of factors such as international trade, supply chain disruptions, and different economic growth patterns in each country.

Long-Term Performance: Year-to-Date Analysis

Looking at year-to-date data for 2025, U.S. railroads have seen a 3.9% increase in carloads and intermodal units, totaling 13,131,945. Canadian railroads show a more modest 1.2% increase in the combined categories, reporting 4,394,093 carloads, containers, and trailers. In contrast, Mexican railroads have reported a decrease of 7.5% for the period, with 644,817 carloads and intermodal units. These year-to-date numbers suggest a mixed outlook. The strong performance in the U.S. is encouraging; however, the decline in Mexican traffic requires further scrutiny to determine the cause and potential implications for cross-border trade and supply chains.

Conclusion

The AAR’s data paints a mixed picture of the North American freight rail landscape in early July 2025. While U.S. railroads saw a moderate increase in overall traffic, driven by gains in carloads and intermodal units, particularly in commodities like metallic ores and coal, the performance of individual commodities varied. Comparing these trends with Canadian and Mexican figures reveals divergent regional impacts. The overall slight increase could be influenced by seasonal factors, commodity-specific supply and demand changes, or fluctuations in intermodal market share. The mixed results highlight the industry’s ongoing sensitivity to economic and geopolitical factors affecting international trade, commodity prices, and manufacturing. Future analysis will need to account for macroeconomic conditions, supply chain dynamics, and regulatory shifts to gain a clearer picture of the direction of the freight rail industry.