US Rail Trends: Intermodal Decline & Economic Factors Shaping Freight

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Introduction

September’s freight-rail volume decreased by 1.2% year over year, with 12 of the 20 major carload categories experiencing declines, according to recent data. Meanwhile, U.S. intermodal rail shipments fell 1.3% compared to September 2024.

Overall Rail Performance

In September, total rail carloads declined by 1.2% year over year. This decrease was observed across 12 of the 20 major carload categories.

Carload Category Analysis

Despite the overall decline, several key industrial commodities showed gains. These included metal products, autos and parts, metallic ores, and stone and glass products.

Intermodal Rail Trends

U.S. intermodal rail shipments, which are closely linked to consumer demand and international trade, decreased by 1.3% last month compared to September 2024.

Seasonal and Economic Factors

September and October are historically peak months for intermodal traffic. The performance this year is subject to unpredictable factors, including global supply chain shifts and consumer-driven freight demand. To mitigate uncertainty, many businesses have front-loaded shipments ahead of the holiday season, which could affect intermodal volumes going forward.

Conclusion

September’s freight-rail volume showed an uneven trend, with overall declines in carloads and intermodal shipments. While some industrial sectors showed growth, the broader economic conditions and seasonal factors are expected to influence the coming months.

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