US Rail Traffic Dips as Persistent Intermodal Weakness Offsets Carload Gains

WASHINGTON D.C. – U.S. freight rail traffic saw a 2.3% year-over-year decline for the week ending December 6, 2025, a downturn driven by a significant 5.4% drop in intermodal container and trailer volumes. This weakness in consumer goods-related transport overshadowed a modest 1.7% rise in traditional carload traffic, reflecting a broader economic trend of normalizing business inventories and a sustained slowdown in retail imports.

Main Body:

According to the latest figures, U.S. railroads transported a total of 508,999 carloads and intermodal units in the first week of December. The data reveals a divergent performance between the two main traffic segments. Carloads, which primarily consist of bulk commodities, showed resilience with a 1.7% increase to 228,823 units. Key drivers for this growth included a 5.4% surge in coal shipments (61,026 carloads), an 8.4% rise in grain (25,098 carloads), and a 4.1% increase in nonmetallic minerals (29,330 carloads). However, declines were noted in chemicals (-3.1%) and metallic ores and metals (-3.0%). In contrast, intermodal traffic continued its downward trend, falling 5.4% to 280,176 units. North American partners saw mixed results, with Canadian railroads reporting a 2.5% increase in carloads but a 1.8% dip in intermodal, while Mexican railroads posted strong gains in both carloads (+2.3%) and intermodal (+18.4%).

The pronounced weakness in the intermodal sector is not an isolated weekly event but part of a persistent trend observed throughout the second half of 2025. According to analysis from the Association of American Railroads (AAR), intermodal volumes have now declined year-over-year in four of the last six months. This sustained contraction is directly linked to macroeconomic shifts following the post-pandemic supply chain disruptions. As businesses have successfully rebuilt their inventories to more normal levels, the urgent need for restocking that fueled a surge in shipping has significantly diminished, leading to softer demand for the containerized goods that dominate intermodal transport.

This trend on the rails is a direct reflection of activity at the nation’s maritime gateways. The latest Global Port Tracker report highlights an ongoing decline in U.S.-bound retail container imports, a trend expected to persist into early 2026. November and December are traditionally slower months for imports, but the steepness of the current year-over-year declines is exacerbated by comparison to late 2024, when retailers front-loaded shipments to mitigate risks from potential port strikes. With import volumes from Asia contracting, there is simply less freight moving from ports to inland distribution centers, directly impacting the demand for intermodal rail services.

Key Takeaways

• Divergent Market Performance: The U.S. rail industry is experiencing a split market, with strength in bulk commodities like grain and coal failing to compensate for significant weakness in consumer goods-driven intermodal traffic.
• Macroeconomic Headwinds: The decline in intermodal volume is a direct result of normalizing business inventories and a broader slowdown in retail import demand as consumer spending patterns shift.
• Challenging Year-Over-Year Comparisons: Current traffic data is being compared against a late-2024 period that saw artificially high import volumes due to shippers hedging against potential supply chain disruptions, making the current downturn appear more pronounced.

Editor’s Analysis

The latest rail traffic figures underscore a pivotal moment for the North American freight industry. The clear divergence between resilient carload volumes and faltering intermodal demand highlights a transition from a goods-focused, pandemic-era economy to a more normalized, service-oriented one. For Class I railroads, this presents a complex strategic challenge. While their role in moving the core commodities of the industrial economy remains robust, the high-margin intermodal segment is facing intense pressure not just from macroeconomic shifts but also from a competitive trucking market. This economic reality, coupled with increasing regulatory and environmental pressures to invest in cleaner locomotive technology, forces operators to navigate a difficult landscape where they must maintain service levels for their steady bulk customers while adapting to volatility in the crucial, and currently shrinking, consumer supply chain.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did overall U.S. rail traffic decrease in early December 2025?

Overall traffic fell by 2.3% primarily because a significant 5.4% drop in intermodal (containers and trailers) traffic was larger than the 1.7% gain seen in traditional carload (bulk commodity) traffic.

What is the difference between carload and intermodal traffic?

Carload traffic typically involves the transport of bulk raw materials and heavy industrial products like coal, grain, chemicals, and vehicles in specialized rail cars. Intermodal traffic involves moving shipping containers or truck trailers on railroad flatcars, primarily carrying consumer goods and merchandise from ports to inland destinations.

What is causing the decline in intermodal shipping?

The decline is caused by a combination of factors, including businesses having normalized their inventory levels after the pandemic, reduced demand for restocking, and a general slowdown in retail container imports into U.S. ports.