LNR/WMR Passenger Surge: UK Rail Passenger Growth Driven by New Services, 2026 Forecast

Introduction

West Midlands Railway (WMR) and London Northwestern Railway (LNR) have experienced a significant rise in passenger numbers, with a 12% year-on-year increase in journeys during the first quarter of 2025/26, according to recent data from the Office of Rail and Road (ORR).

Passenger Growth

Figures from the ORR reveal that the combined passenger count for WMR and LNR reached 67.7 million in 2024/25. The forecast for 2025/26 projects a further increase, with over 80 million journeys expected.

Service Enhancements and Infrastructure

The growth in passenger numbers has been influenced by the introduction of additional LNR services in December 2024 and the deployment of two new train fleets across the network. Growth has been particularly noticeable during weekends due to an increase in leisure travel.

Furthermore, the expansion of contactless payment options to more stations in the south-east has contributed to increased ridership on London commuter routes.

Strategic Developments

LNR is planning to launch direct services to Manchester Airport starting in December 2026, creating a direct connection between the airport and major cities like Birmingham, Wolverhampton, and Stoke-on-Trent. Despite not currently offering direct service to Manchester, LNR services are already involved in one in ten journeys between Manchester and London Euston.

Additionally, WMR is preparing to open five new stations, and LNR is advancing the deployment of its Class 730 electric fleet on more routes.

Executive Commentary

Ian McConnell, managing director of WMR and LNR, noted a surge in travel demand, especially on routes to and from London Euston. He attributed the increase to value fares and additional services. The new electric train fleet, which has been providing 20% more capacity to and from London Euston, is expected to support continued growth into 2026.

Conclusion

In summary, WMR and LNR, operated by Transport UK, have reported substantial passenger growth, supported by service enhancements, infrastructure improvements, and strategic expansions. The operators anticipate continued growth in the coming year, driven by new services and infrastructure projects.

Company Summary

West Midlands Railway (WMR): Operates rail services in the West Midlands region, with a focus on commuter and regional routes.

London Northwestern Railway (LNR): Provides rail services, including long-distance routes to and from London Euston.

Transport UK: Operates both West Midlands Railway (WMR) and London Northwestern Railway (LNR).

Manchester Airport: An international airport in Manchester, targeted for new direct rail services.

Office of Rail and Road (ORR): The independent safety and economic regulator for Britain’s railways.